ometimes a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

I was reminded of this recently while perusing one of the numerous RV-centric groups on social media. One post that caught my eye was a somewhat dubious claim that the recent runup in prices of diesel exhaust fluid — DEF — was attributable to possible manipulation by a major stockholder in both a certain railroad as well as a big manufacturer of electric vehicles. Where the author crossed the line, in my opinion, was drawing an inference that pressure was being exerted on one stock in hopes of propping up the other.

Have I lost you yet? Perhaps a bit of background is in order.

When it comes to RVing, there’s really no substitute for diesel power. Whether it’s a diesel-pusher motorhome or diesel-powered pickup towing a fifth wheel or travel trailer, the torque capabilities of a diesel engine — along with the attendant upgrades to drivetrains and suspensions that are usually part and parcel to diesel powerplants — make it perfect for moving heavy RVs.

Modern diesels require the injection of DEF — diesel exhaust fluid — into the exhaust stream in order to meet current exhaust emissions standards. Unfortunately, the main component of DEF is urea (along with de-ionized water), a byproduct of industrial ammonia production. And the largest exporter of urea is Russia, currently engaged in a war with Ukraine and, consequently, facing worldwide sanctions.

To make matters worse, urea also is a key ingredient in fertilizer, which has skyrocketed in cost due to the pandemic and shipping slowdowns. In fact, China — the previous No. 4 urea exporter — has at least temporarily stopped exporting the chemical in order to meet agricultural demands in its own country.

The upshot is that DEF prices — already headed upwards — will be hammered. According to a report by Mansfield Energy, urea prices were $600/ton in December — three times the normal rate.

And while U.S. urea imports only hover around 10%, it faces other problems. Last year, Hurricane Ida damaged some of the major Gulf Coast chemical manufacturing plants, creating production and delivery challenges.

Now, according to a report in S&P Global, widespread railroad service problems in the U.S. could possibly sideline 10% of the nation’s commercial trucking fleet because of fuel and additive supply disruptions — specifically, DEF.

As the report noted, during an April 27 hearing of the Surface Transportation Board, Pilot Travel Centers CEO Shameek Konar said the aforementioned disruptions have led to Union Pacific Railroad ordering Pilot to reduce deliveries of DEF or face a shipment embargo.

This is where the social media poster I spoke of earlier may have gone off the rails, in my opinion. Apparently, a bit of digging on his part yielded the information that a major stockholder in Union Pacific holds a similarly large position in an electric-vehicle manufacturer — and drew an inference that the pushback by the railroad was somehow orchestrated by said stockholder to increase the value of battery-powered vehicles.

That, I think, is a bridge too far.

As it turns out, Pilot Travel Centers was not the only company told to reduce shipments. According to Michigan Farm News, Union Pacific gave similar edicts to about 30 shippers to reduce their volume of private cars or face embargo. The problem is simple and has hit virtually every industry: Union Pacific lost a lot of employees during the downturn — according to one source, railroads have reduced their workforces by 45,000 employees in the last six years. Consequently, railroads are behind in their own shipments, leading to the restrictions placed upon private cars in order to catch up.

While the agricultural industry has a fallback of sorts — manure — the same can’t be said of diesel-powered vehicles. The only alternative is rising cost. The Argus DEF Weekly, a product of Argus Media, pegged bulk quantities (a typical order of about 1,500 gallons) of DEF at Dallas at 60.5 cents/gallon at the beginning of 2021; by early December, it was $1.59/gallon. A major supplier, SC Lubricants (SCL) announced back-to-back price increases in December and January that, together, put DEF prices “at the highest they have been in history,” noted a report on the company’s website.

And, according to SCL, a market update released by Blue DEF noted that every step in the process to bring DEF to market has become more costly, from those incurred by domestic urea producers to transportation costs to packaging for totes, drums, jugs and bulk. To make matters worse, the industry is dealing with worker shortages and imported prill (a granular form of urea) that has created a shortage of raw materials.

You already know most of this, even if you don’t know why it’s happening. Escalating prices are everywhere, from the fuel pump to the grocery store. What we’re all learning, though, is what happens when the railroad and trucking industries are squeezed.

Will RVers with diesel-powered rigs face a DEF shortage during their travels this summer? Unless something significant happens, no — but it will cost more. As noted by Jobber’s World, “The message here is, DEF supply is expected to remain tight with continued unpredictable price movement as the European conflict continues and the planting season nears.”

As the old adage goes, “You’re not paranoid if they’re really after you.” But we all just need to make sure the sky really is falling before anyone gets worked up, because when something bounces off your head it’s usually just an acorn.

So go ahead and enjoy your summer.